Edward Lorenz articulated this metaphor to imply that a small, inconsequential-seeming event can have huge unforeseen effects. He in fact drew the metaphor from weather phenomena, specifically, the details of a tornado (the exact time of formation, the exact path taken) being influenced by minor perturbations such as the flapping of the wings of a distant butterfly several weeks earlier.
Ironically, the cyclone that just struck Orissa and part of Andhra Pradesh coast, and caused heavy damage, is called TITLI—butterfly. Was the agency which names cyclones aware of this?
Anyway, the name is not the point. The damage is. As in the after-math of every disaster, lives and livelihoods have to be restored. And we have to learn from each disaster how to proof ourselves better against future disasters, and how we can handle the relief and rehab phases better.
These lessons are important for us. 87 per cent of India’s land is prone to one or the other kind of disaster—floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes etc. India is second among all countries affected by disasters every year. Over 50 million people are affected by disasters every year, and on an average, over 1 million houses damaged.
Cyclone is a natural disaster of meteorological or climatic origin. It is classified as an ‘immediate onset disaster’ (it manifests its complete effects in 1-7 days). The Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea experience about 6-7 per cent of the world’s annual cyclones. The majority occur from October to December, and a smaller number in April-May. Though the percentage of cyclones hitting the Indian Ocean region is low, the wind speeds are moderate and the cyclones are relatively short lived and smaller in size, they cause heavy damage when they strike the coastal areas of Bay of Bengal. This is because the conditions of the region favour huge storm surges. The combination of high astronomical tide, shallow water and the special coastal configuration of north Bay of Bengal result in the generation of devastating storm tides.
These are the natural reasons. But humans have contributed hugely too. The destruction of coastal forests is a major issue. Mangrove tidal forests are natural cyclone barriers and invaluable protectors. But alas, these are disappearing. Rice paddies and prawn farming are cited as some of the reasons for this.
So Titli came and caused destruction. The preparedness and timely actions of the State and Disaster relief agencies have ensured that the destruction was less devastating that it could have been. But still, nine lives were lost.
Today is International Day for Disaster Reduction. A day to pledge that we will commit ourselves to at least halt the human exacerbation of destruction due to disasters, and to stand by those impacted by them.
Acknowledgement: ‘Dealing with Disasters: Awareness, Preparedness, Response.’ Meena Raghunathan, Avanish Kumar. Centre for Environment Education. Ahmedabad. 2004.
One thought on “And The Butterfly Flapped its Wings…”
A very timely and apt blog…will have to read more about the butterfly flapping its wings and weather phenomenon.
And thanks for reminding the International Disaster Reduction day!!
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